The Urge to Bolt

The problems that Cindee has listed are inextricably linked to our economy. The reason the economy has begun to contract is because of Peak Oil. Each year the global production of fossil fuels will be less from here on out, leading to permanent economic contraction. Understanding the real threats and the long-term nature of the problem is the first step. After that, what do we do about it?

I’m concerned because I have had several friends recently who decided to pick up and move to places Outside, based on nothing more than fear of what could come. And fight or flight is a very human response to a short-term crisis. The problem is, this is not going to be a short-term crisis. This is the first downturn in the growth of our American economy for the first time in 200 years. This current economic contraction will continue over the longer term of decades, and economic problems will be how Peak Oil presents during this period.

Alaska’s main problems are it’s heavy reliance on fossil fuels for heat, food, and transportation. But we also produce oil, coal, and gas, and we have many options for renewable energy production. We have a functional rail system and most of our communities are on the railbelt or are accessible by barge. There are less people in proportion to the amount of land and natural resources than any other state, and we are buffered from potential mass migrations when things start to fall apart by the isolation of the state. And many of the people in the state are well prepared for lifestyles that are less reliant on fossil fuels through their outdoor pursuits.

If you’re feeling the urge to bolt right now, you need to figure out what your needs and goals are, and whether moving Outside would just be jumping from the frying pan into the fire. And do not discount the sense of community and close ties that many Alaskans have. The most important component of coping with a crisis is having a community of friends and neighbors who can work together to deal with problems. Do not look for state or national leadership for significant help—there are too many of us, and our reliance on fossil fuels at this point is too great. The most effective help will come from small local community groups. Transition groups or common security clubs could help in the formation of these groups.

Probably the biggest reason to move would be if you need to be nearer to family outside. Air travel will get much more expensive in the future. We get 2/3 of our fossil fuels from other countries, and the collapse of global currencies including the dollar will impact trade of oil and other goods.

If you do decide to stay here, be sure you have a back-up source of heat for your house that is not based on natural gas. And position yourself so that you could take mass transit or bike or walk to work. And Alaskans should always have well-stocked pantries—the threat of a bad earthquake should be reason enough for all of us to be concerned about these issues, even without the looming long emergency of Peak Oil.

Here’s a helpful link about whether to adapt in place or not from Energy Bulletin by Astyk.

If you need a peak oil shrink, the doctor is in.

And if you are just figuring all of this out now, and are in the panic stage, be calm, take a deep breath, and settle down. This will not all happen tomorrow. Humans have a very short-term orientation to life. The changes that we are talking about here will occur over decades. But we should have started 40 years ago, so we are way behind as a civilization. It is time to get to work, now.

For those of you who decide to stay in Alaska, there is a long list of things that need to be done, including more renewable energy, retrofitting homes to be energy efficient with multiple heat sources, food storage, local foods, and improving mass transit. What have you done this month towards these goals?